Could Rising Autism Rates Spark an Epidemic Among Kids?

Posts in Autism Series

• Are Autistic Kids Being Over-diagnosed in the U.S. System?
• Could Rising Autism Rates Spark an Epidemic Among Kids? (This post)
• Stereotypes of Autistic Kids: Beyond the Myths
• Is It Autism? Symptom Overlap in Mild Cases

I’m worried that autistic kids might be over-diagnosed in the U.S. California’s rising autism rates—3.9% in 2018, 4.5% in 2020, and 5.3% in 2022 (CDC)—caught my eye.

Could social factors like emotional contagion fuel this trend? This led me to ask: Could rising autism rates spark an epidemic among kids?

Autism Spectrum Disorder (ASD) affects how kids communicate and behave. ASD rates are rising fast in California. Could autism become an epidemic among kids? Social factors like emotional contagion and mass psychogenic illness might play a role. Let’s explore why.

California’s Soaring ASD Rates

California’s ASD rates are climbing. The CDC reports:

• 2018: 3.9% of kids diagnosed.
• 2020: 4.5% of kids diagnosed.
• 2022: 5.3% of kids diagnosed.
• 2024: Here is my prediction 6.0%

Globally, only 1 in 100 kids (1%) have autism (Zeidan et al., 2022). California’s numbers are much higher. Why is this happening? Could these rates keep growing?

What’s Driving the Autism Epidemic?

Better screening helps find more ASD cases. Awareness is higher too. But California’s spike suggests more.

Emotional contagion could be a factor.

This is when emotions or behaviors spread fast, like yawning when others yawn. Mass psychogenic illness (MPI) is similar. It’s when symptoms spread without a physical cause.

In California, more autism diagnoses raise awareness. Parents and teachers notice small signs, like avoiding eye contact. Kids with mild traits—or even no symptoms—might get diagnosed.

For example, a shy kid might seem autistic. This creates a cycle. More diagnoses fuel more concern, leading to more diagnoses.

Could Autism Spread Nationwide?

If California’s ASD rates hit 6% or more, it could strain schools and healthcare. Over-diagnosis might confuse people about autism. California often sets trends. An autism epidemic could spread across the U.S. Social media, like X, amplifies these trends. News about autism can make parents worry more, pushing more diagnoses.

How to Stop an Autism Epidemic

We must balance awareness and accuracy. Here’s how:

• Clear Diagnoses: Doctors should use strict rules for ASD.
• Educate Families: Teach parents about normal kid behaviors.
• Study Social Factors: Research how emotional contagion affects ASD rates.
• Support Kids: Help all kids with ASD, no matter their symptoms.

California’s rising ASD rates are a warning. Is this a true autism epidemic or a social trend? We need answers. Share this on X. Talk to friends. Ask: Are we diagnosing autism correctly? Let’s protect our kids.

References

Zeidan, J., Fombonne, E., Scorah, J., Ibrahim, A., Durkin, M. S., Saxena, S., Yusuf, A., Shih, A., & Elsabbagh, M. (2022). Global prevalence of autism: A systematic review update. Autism research : official journal of the International Society for Autism Research, 15(5), 778–790. https://doi.org/10.1002/aur.2696